Well attestedNamed from the place
Monte Carlo fallacy
noun · first attested 20th century
A Monaco roulette wheel landed on black 26 times and ruined the table betting red.
The mistaken belief that a run of one outcome makes the opposite outcome more likely on the next independent trial.
43.7389°N 7.4252°E · Q45240
Record
- Relationship
- Named from the place
- Confidence
- Well attestedThe place link is the standard scholarly account.
- Attested
- 20th century
- Part of speech
- noun
Explanations here are written for this atlas. Dictionary text is not copied; the sources are linked so the claim can be checked.
- Step 1
Monte Carlo
- In English
Monte Carlo fallacy
The name commemorates a night at the Monte Carlo Casino in August 1913, when gamblers piled onto red as the streak of black kept running. It is better known as the gambler's fallacy, and the exact number of spins varies between retellings, but the point does not: the wheel has no memory.